Friday, January 8, 2010

NFL Wild-Card Playoff Round Picks

The 2009 NFL regular season has finished its course, and now we are headed to the big tournament. We are left with 12 teams, all trying to achieve the same, one goal: win the Super Bowl. After New Orleans, Minnesota, San Diego, Indianapolis, Arizona, New England, and Cincinnati wrapped up division spots, there were the wild cards and one division title left. When it was all set and done, the Baltimore Ravens clinched a playoff spot with a win over Oakland, and the Jets grabbed the last one with a 37-0 win over the Bengals who were without star receiver Chad Ochocinco, who hurt his knee during pre-game warm-ups. In the NFC, Dallas beat out the Eagles to win the East title, and the Eagles settled with a wild card spot. Finally, the Green Bay Packers beat Arizona to get the last spot. Now, we get to the picks. Who moves on? Who goes home?
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New York Jets (9-7, 5th seed) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (10-6, 4th seed), Saturday, 4:30 pm.

As I read all the predictions and see what analysts are saying about this match-up, it's about how Mark Sanchez is a rookie who has showed plenty of rookie mistakes down the stretch. However, for me, the numbers outside their dismal passing game is pretty damn good. They are 1st in the league in total defense. They are first in the league for their rushing attack. They allow the fewest points per game in the entire league, with 14.8. Now, the Bengals, are very similar to them, it's scary. Their running game is 9th in the league. They are 4th in the league in total defense. they are 7th in the league for rushing defense, while New York is 8th. They have the 6th ranked pass defense, compared to the Jets' 1st ranked. Finally, they are 6th in the league for points allowed, at 18.2.

It's scary. These teams are almost identical, having problems with their passing game, but being absolutely spectacular in every other category. Now, for the Bengals, the passing game just hasn't been there. They have the quarterback in Carson Palmer and they have the receiver in Chad Ochocinco. With the Jets, they don't really have a quarterback that is proven.

When picking a winner for this game, it's hard, because I personally want the Bengals to win. I really do. They have been through so much, like the death of Chris Henry, a close teammate to a lot of players, especially Ochocinco. They deserve this game, and so does the NFL, because it would be a feel-good story and something that they need in the midst of various scandals.

However, the Jets are far more dangerous. They have one of the best, if not the best cornerback in the league in Darelle Revis. The Jets aren't that shaky as their record suggests. They, in my opinion are the sleeper team in the league that could make some noise. Yes, passing is a huge part of it all, but these guys just find a way to win. Expect this to be a dogfight between two elite defenses. I'm not entirely confident on this though.

Pick: New York Jets, 16-14.
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Philadelphia Eagles (11-5, 6th seed) vs. Dallas Cowboys (11-5, 3rd seed), Saturday, 8 pm.

The NFC is the more competitive, by far. The 3rd seed has the same record as the 6th. That just shows how good this conference is and how much this conference is up in the air. The big headline for the 'Boys heading into the last month of the season was their inability in the past several seasons to win big games, questioning the big-game ability of Tony Romo and head coach Wade Phillips. That's all done. After knocking off the then-undefeated New Orleans Saints and a huge division-clinching win over the Eagles, they have turned heads and played the best football in a long time. The big-play capability of Romo is in no doubt, as they look to continue their reign over their division rivals.

The outstanding numbers for the Eagles include a 9th ranked rush defense, a 5th ranked scoring team, and an 11th ranked offensive team. That's a little different for America's Team. They have the 2nd best offense, the 7th best rushing attack, the 6th ranked passing game, the 9th ranked defense, the 4th ranked rush defense, and have allowed the 2nd fewest points per game. Pretty lobsided, eh?

A long-missed Brian Westbrook comes back for the Eagles, who have been deprived of a striving running game, and look to add another threat to their explosive offense. It still, however, doesn't really make up for the fact that the Cowboys have DeMarcus Ware in their front line.

For some reason however, people are leaning over to the Eagles because they believe it's hard to win 3 games in a row in one season against the team. How does that make sense? I mean, the better team almost always comes out on top, right?

Pick: Dallas Cowboys, 27-17.
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Baltimore Ravens (9-7, 6th seed) vs. New England Patriots (10-6, 3rd seed), Sunday, 1 pm.

They have Tom Brady. They have Bill Belichek. They have Randy Moss. They don't have Wes Welker. After going down with a knee injury that is going to take him out of the entire playoffs last week on an awkward fall, the star receiver who led the league in receptions will not be another one of Brady's targets. It comes against a bad time, when the Ravens, knowing for not giving a damn about who and/or what they're hitting, they'll hit you. It's scary to think about how the Patriots will survive, and it's a thought that has crept into their fans, now becoming a reality.

The Pats, and know that this is involving a healthy Wes Welker, have the 3rd best offense, the 12th best rushing game, the 3rd best passing game, and have scored the 6th most points in the league. The Ravens have the 5th best running attack, and have scored the 9th most points per game. Their defense, as always, is absolutely amazing. It ranks 3rd in overall defense, 5th in rushing defence, 8th in passing defense, and have allowed the 3rd fewest points. The Patriots meanwhile, have only produced the 5th best point defense in the league.

A very good determining stat is that the Patriots went a perfect 8-0 at home this year, while the Ravens stunk it up with a 3-5 road record. Another big factor, is the upgraded role of receiever Julian Edelman, who absolutely surprised me. The way he plays out their and runs is exactly like Wes Welker. His skill level isn't there, but the way he plays is exactly the same. He runs the short routes, and makes big plays out of them.

Nonetheless, the expertise in postseason glory is something that should carry the Patriots on to the divisional round.

Pick: New England Patriots, 31-19.
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Green Bay Packers (11-5, 5th seed) vs. Arizona Cardinals (10-6, 4th seed), Sunday, 4:40 pm.

This is the toughest game to pick. Mainly because, these two teams are extremely good and I`ll say something that has been on the minds of many. Whoever wins this could very well go all the way, given the way the top 2 seeds (New Orleans and Minnesota) have played lately. Aaron Rodgers seems to be coming out of his own and making his own mark into Green Bay Packer legendary status, trying to get rid of the enormous shadow left behind by Brett Favre.

The Packers possess the 6th best offense, the 7th best passing game, and have scored the 3rd most amount of points. They also have the 2nd best defense, the best rushing defense, a 5th ranked passing game, and have given up the 7th fewest points. The Cardinals are no comparison, as they don`t even rank in the top 10 for the top categories.

Experience should be key as the Cards went all the way to the Super Bowl last year. Aaron Rodgers is making his 1st career playoff start. Larry Fitzgerald going up against Charles Woodson will likely be something of an entertaining show to say the least. Again, it is the hardest one to choose. I will go ahead and choose the team with experience.

Pick: Arizona Cardinals, 41-38.

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