Week 13 Picks

After going 9-4 last week, I look to improve on my accuracy on my scoring totals, let alone the outcomes. With much hesitation, here are my picks for the upcoming week.
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St.Louis (1-10) at Chicago (4-7), 1 pm.
Pick: Chicago, 21-10.

Because it's the Bears that I'm taking, it's a risk. However, it's a risk that only makes sense for a couple of reasons. Firstly, it's at home in Soldier Field, where conditions should be extremely different as opposed to playing indoors, like what the Rams do at home. Secondly, the Rams defense is plain horrible. They are third last in the league when it comes to giving up points, allowing an average of 27 points, 5th last in total yards allowed, giving up 374, and 5th last in rushing yards allowed, letting opponents get 148.5 yards per game.
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Tampa Bay (1-10) at Carolina (4-7), 1 pm.
Pick: Carolina, 31-20.

It won't be the most exciting game, but a good match-up should lie in pro-bowl receiver Steve Smith going up against pro-bowl cornerback, Ronde Barber. The Panthers should run the ball quite easily, with DeAngelo Williams rushing for a bit more than 1000 yards this season, and a Bucaneer defense that gives up a bit over 160 yards a game, good for third last in the NFL. Don't expect a really good game from Jake Delhomme, who has thrown interception after interception, but it doesn't constitute for a Panthers loss though.
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Houston (5-6) at Jacksonville (6-5), 1 pm.
Pick: Houston, 28-24.

Yes, the Jaguars are at home and they have a red-hot running back in Maurice Jones-Drew. However, they lost to the San Francisco 49ers last week in a humiliating 20-3 loss. The Texans almost knocked out the undefeated Indianapolis Colts, until the defense collapsed in the late-going. However, if the first half of that game was any indication of how they are going to play on Sunday, then it should be more than enough to plow their way past the Jaguars. If Jones-Drew gets the holes that are needed to make big-time plays, the Jaguars have a shot, as the Texans give up 120 rushing yards a game. Also, if Matt Schaub and his receivers are on top of everything, they can blow past a Jaguars defense that gives up 243 passing yards a game. Plus, the Texans have the third best passing offense. Who are they behind? The Colts and the Patriots. Pretty good, eh?
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Denver (7-4) at Kansas City (3-8), 1 pm.
Pick: Denver, 35-17.

Kansas City seems to be the team that everyone loves to beat up on. Last week, Cincinnati defeated them after losing a game against the Raiders. The Broncos have lost 4 of their last 5, and look to redeem themselves and put themselves back in the playoff picture when they face off against the Chiefs. It is no secret that the Chiefs are the absolute definition of atrocious. Their defense is crappy and their offense just plain stinks. No contest here.
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Tennessee (5-6) at Indianapolis (11-0), 1 pm.
Pick: Tennessee, 21-20.

Possibly the game of the week. Although Tennessee's record doesn't really help that argument, when you look at what they've done for the past month and a half or so, it gets prettier. After starting the year at 0-6 and being written off by analysts all over the nation as the biggest disappointment of 2009, the Titans have found new life under new starting quarterback, Vince Young. He has led them to a 5-0 record since then, and they are now back to the form that led them to the 13-3 record last season. Yes, the Colts are 11-0, at home, and are one win away from tying the NFL mark for consecutive regular season wins, at 21. However, the Colts have shaken off late-game victories to keep their unbeaten season alive. Five straight victories after going behind in the 4th quarter is impressive, however, there is a limit. I'm rooting for the Colts, but this is going to be Chris Johnson's payday. Look out.
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Philadelphia (7-4) at Atlanta (6-5), 1 pm.
Pick: Philadelphia, 20-14.

Michael Vick makes his return to the city that made him a star. After signing with the Eagles following a two-year sentence off a dog-fighting case, the quarterback makes his return in what should be a hostile, but loving crowd. Back to the game, the Eagles are missing out on running back Brian Westbrook and receiver DeSean Jackson and the Falcons are missing QB Matt Ryan. Although Donovan McNabb still has Brent Celek and Jeremy Maclin as receivers, Celek is nursing a sprained thumb, which should make it harder for him to catch the ball. Yes, a possible solution would be for Michael Turner to run it for the Falcons, however the Eagles have only allowed 102 rushing yards per game. Even if his receivers are banged up, Donovan McNabb should have somewhat of a better game, because he's passing against a team giving up 253 passing yards per game. If the Eagles cut out the stupid penalties, committing 82, which is third highest in the league, they'll also play much better.
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New Orleans (11-0) at Washington (3-8), 1 pm.
Pick: New Orleans, 34-14.

11 down, 5 more to go. Next stop is against the lowly Redskins. There really should be no contest between these two. The Saints, however, don't have as easy of a task as you may think. The Redskins allow only 298 yards per game, good for 7th in the league, and only allow 170 passing yards, good for second in the league. However, the reason why they'll beat them rather easily is because of the thing that separates the Saints now from the Saints a couple years back: they have a developed running game, which is a reason why they have averaged the most amount of yards in the NFL with 426 yards.
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Oakland (3-8) at Pittsburgh (6-5), 1 pm.
Pick: Pittsburgh: 30-20.

Ben Roethlisberger is expected to be back under center. The only reason why the Raiders score 20 against one of the game's most elite defenses is because, they are missing their Pro Bowl safety, Troy Polamalu for a third straight game. Other than that, expect no other blemish.
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Detroit (2-9) at Cincinnati (8-3), 1 pm.
Pick: Cincinnati, 42-24.

The Bengals are getting back running back Cedric Benson, which should help propel them even more for a win over the Lions of Detroit, who are in for yet another losing season. Ranking 7th in the league with 133 rushing yards per game, the ground attack has been one of the main reasons why as to how the Bengals have been able to sustain a great record thus far. That, and the smart play by Chad Ochocinco, and give some credit to the defense, who has unprecedented levels of energy.
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New England (7-4) at Miami (5-6), 1 pm.
Pick: New England, 26-21.

Coming off a blowout loss coming from the hands of the New Orleans Saints in Monday night action, the Patriots are in a sticky situation and need to get out quickly. In order to have a better grip of the AFC East, they need to win against one of their divisional rivals, the Dolphins. Paired with the amazing play ability of Tom Brady to either Wes Welker, Randy Moss, Benjamin Watson, Kevin Faulk, and so on, coupled with the big-time defensive abilities of the Dolphins, expect this game to be very close. Plus, the Patriots have been in more than a handful of big game situations.
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San Diego (8-3) at Cleveland (1-10), 4:05 pm.
Pick: San Diego, 41-13.

This doesn't even need an explanation. The Chargers are red hot and Philip Rivers has performed incredibly well under the radar this year. Blowout. Cleveland's embarrasing season takes another embarrassment.
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Dallas (8-3) at New York Giants (6-5), 4:15 pm.
Pick: Dallas, 34-28.

It's good to be able to say that the Cowboys are going to beat the Giants with a lot of confidence. Tony Romo is on track with his throws, and how about Miles Austin? His stellar play is the main reason as to why this team is where they are right now. Only thing that can keep them back in this one? Their recent December woes. Still, it's going to be a great game. Good watch.
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San Francisco (5-6) at Seattle (4-7), 4:15 pm.
Pick: Seattle, 19-14.

It's definitely going to be a close game. The Seahawks and their passing game is clearly better. However, San Francisco's running game is amazing. I give it to the Seahawks just because of the fact that they are at home and the 49ers are on a 4-game road losing streak.
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Minnesota (10-1) at Arizona (7-4), 8:20 pm.
Pick: Minnesota, 33-24.

Kurt Warner is uncertain, and they're hoping that the 38-year-old can fight off the concussion symptoms he suffered a week back, which pulled him out of last week's game. The Vikings have one of the best ground attacks, and the Cards have no answer. The Cards have a wonderful passing game, but that's only if Warner comes back. The score 33-24 is when Warner plays in the game, and not the struggling Matt Leinart. If the 4-year pro makes another start for them, the score changes by a lot. If Warner doesn't play, the Vikings win 35-14.
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MONDAY: Baltimore (6-5) at Green Bay (7-4), 8:30 pm.
Pick: Green Bay, 20-19.

The Packers are actually better than you think. They have the second best defense in the league, allowing 281 yards per game, with the Jets in front of them, respectively. They've played quietly under the radar and it's understandable as the Vikings have hogged the spotlight all year long. This game should and shall be close. A battle of the defenses for sure. If Baltimore's defensive unit, led by Ray Lewis, doesn't put pressure on Aaron Rodgers, this game will definitely not be as close, as they are 6th in the league in passing.